- Counterpoint Research has released a 2026 forecast report on the smartphone chipset (SoC) market.
- Global smartphone SoC shipments in 2026 are projected to decrease by 7% year-over-year, primarily driven by surging memory prices.
- Meanwhile, consumer demand is shifting from “affordability” to “high performance,” with nearly one in three smartphones sold in 2026 predicted to be a premium model.
On Wednesday, January 28, 2026, global technology market research firm Counterpoint Research released its 2026 forecast report for the smartphone chipset (SoC) market.
According to the Counterpoint Research report, global smartphone SoC shipments in 2026 are expected to decrease by 7% year-over-year, mainly due to rising memory prices. In particular, low-cost models priced below $150 are predicted to be most significantly affected by the increase in component costs.
On the other hand, overall market revenue is expected to record double-digit growth in 2026. This is because consumer demand is shifting from “affordability” to “high performance,” and sales of high-end premium models have been strong recently. It is predicted that approximately one in three smartphones sold in 2026 will be a premium model.
A noteworthy point is the contrast in fortunes between manufacturers. While makers relying on general-purpose chips will bear the full brunt of rising costs, analysis suggests that manufacturers investing in their own in-house chips—such as Google, Samsung, Huawei, and Xiaomi—are less susceptible to external factors and are in an advantageous position to respond more flexibly to market challenges.
Furthermore, 2026 is set to be a major technological turning point, as major flagship SoCs begin the transition from the conventional 3nm process to the more refined 2nm process. Samsung has already announced its latest chipset, the Exynos 2600. Along with these developments, on-device AI performance is expected to improve dramatically, reaching “100 TOPS” (100 trillion operations per second) at its peak.
As a result, while the premium model and AI shifts expected to trend in the 2026 smartphone market will still be led by the likes of Apple and Qualcomm, Counterpoint Research concludes that this will also provide a powerful tailwind for manufacturers like Google—which is integrating its in-house “Tensor” chips with AI (Gemini) features—to differentiate themselves and grow their market share.
Source：Counterpoint Research
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